Friday
Dec192008
Hang on a minute....
Friday, December 19, 2008 at 9:20AM
Some additional thoughts about the recent Apple announcements...
We all know that Apple needs to put in a succession plan for the day when Steve steps down at Apple. It has to happen at some stage people, regardless of any issues over his health.
The dependance on Steve is both a major plus and a major thorn in the side for Apple, having unreasonable impacts on the stock price.
We all know that with the current perceptions, when Steve does eventually step down, the stock will be crucified and investor confidence will be shaken to the core.
So when to start the process?
How about, when the stock is already severely depressed. Like now!
Check!
If they planned to do it three years from now, stock could well be back up in the $200 mark so it would be madness to act then. Start now and reduce the effect on the stock as it can't go much lower anyway.
But how to start introducing the succession plan and remove the dependancy on Steve?
Pull him from high profile events that already have the eyes of the world focussed in.
Check!
OK, so Apple replace him with Phil at Macworld.
Already, we're seeing expectations being reduced, analysists forecast a "low key" keynote with little substance. No new product announcements. Somethings up at Apple!
But hang on a minute, a "low-key" keynote would re-inforce the perception that Apple is Steve. Imagine the press - no announcements at Macworld, Apple on the back foot, see what happens when Steve isn't in control?
No, the smart move for Apple would be to get Phil to do a stellar keynote. Just knock it out of the park. Include some amazing product announcements completely out of left field. Put the buzz back into Macworld.
Show the world that Apple isn't just Steve Jobs.
End result - people can start to relax about the succession, Apple can still deliver. Steve can still be in control for as long as he wants, stocks won't tumble each time he doesn't appear on stage.
It's not going to happen from a single keynote, but I bet you it's the start of a gradual process to remove the unnecessary and unfounded bashing of Apple stock based on the perceived dependancy of just one man - albeit an incredibly important man.
Just a thought!
We all know that Apple needs to put in a succession plan for the day when Steve steps down at Apple. It has to happen at some stage people, regardless of any issues over his health.
The dependance on Steve is both a major plus and a major thorn in the side for Apple, having unreasonable impacts on the stock price.
We all know that with the current perceptions, when Steve does eventually step down, the stock will be crucified and investor confidence will be shaken to the core.
So when to start the process?
How about, when the stock is already severely depressed. Like now!
Check!
If they planned to do it three years from now, stock could well be back up in the $200 mark so it would be madness to act then. Start now and reduce the effect on the stock as it can't go much lower anyway.
But how to start introducing the succession plan and remove the dependancy on Steve?
Pull him from high profile events that already have the eyes of the world focussed in.
Check!
OK, so Apple replace him with Phil at Macworld.
Already, we're seeing expectations being reduced, analysists forecast a "low key" keynote with little substance. No new product announcements. Somethings up at Apple!
But hang on a minute, a "low-key" keynote would re-inforce the perception that Apple is Steve. Imagine the press - no announcements at Macworld, Apple on the back foot, see what happens when Steve isn't in control?
No, the smart move for Apple would be to get Phil to do a stellar keynote. Just knock it out of the park. Include some amazing product announcements completely out of left field. Put the buzz back into Macworld.
Show the world that Apple isn't just Steve Jobs.
End result - people can start to relax about the succession, Apple can still deliver. Steve can still be in control for as long as he wants, stocks won't tumble each time he doesn't appear on stage.
It's not going to happen from a single keynote, but I bet you it's the start of a gradual process to remove the unnecessary and unfounded bashing of Apple stock based on the perceived dependancy of just one man - albeit an incredibly important man.
Just a thought!
Reader Comments (9)
Makes sense to me.
Don, I suspect you might be on to something...
Yes!
Makes complete sense.
Although it will be a sad day when Steve finally leaves Apple, I think it'll be a day when the world of Apple can move on. They'll see that it's not just Steve.
yeah, Steve's absence certainly came as a shock to most Apple fans out there.
Interesting take, Don, but you ignore how badly this 'worked' if it was part of a plan. They waited until the last minute, made an announcement that resulted in a 6% stock price decrease, and caused unwanted discussions about Steve's health. If they had a plan to do this it would have been laid out much better, and their PR people would have had answers at the ready to the most common questions.
But they didn't.
Also, Schiller is only one of a few possible internal replacements for Jobs, and he's quite possibly the most boring public speaker of the lot. It does not bode well for this to be the intended path to indepence from Jobs ... ESPECIALLY if the new products shown DON'T 'knock ot out of the park.' Indeed, the opposite would happen -- you'd see articles speculating that Jobs has been too sick to keep atop Apple product development, other articles will say that a lack of leadership explains everyting from missing the Netbook boom to slowing ipod sales to stock price gyrations.... you get the idea.
In other words, if they did this on purpose, as you suggest, it's a highwire act with many roads to failure. And I really doubt that this was the plan at all.
Yes, but a stock price decrease of 6% on a price of $90 is a heck of a lot less than 6% of $250 and it could be an even higher drop if the stock was inflated.
The withdrawl from Macworld next year deflected a lot of talk about Steves health.
There is no confirmation that Phil will do the full keynote, we may see some guest appearances from others. I woudn't say he was boring mind you.
Don, no responsible company acts to allow its stock to fall 6.5%; if they believe bad news might affect shares they plan ahead to mitigate the downside. Apple did no such thing which underscores that this was not part of any big plan.
If you think this colossal misstep was planned, then Apple must have understood that these types of articles would come out then:
"The ailing creator of the iPod and iPhone is next to irreplaceable."
http://www.newsweek.com/id/176318
"Apple Fans To Protest Jobs' Macworld Absence"
http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/mac/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=212501414
And I find that totally unbelievable.
Elliot,
Apples stock price falls even on good news!
They currently have no control on how the stock behaves and have no way to introduce Steves succession plan without taking a hit. Hence my assertion that they've started now to reduce the effect as the stock is already deflated and the net effect is much less than if they left it until we are out of the current overall economic downturn.
This is not merely abot stock prices, and you ignore all the other points I made, Don.
Companies do have ways to mitigate dramatic stock drops, even to the extent of releasing press releases allaying unfounded fears. Apple knoew well that Jobs's health was an issue which would indeed affect stock price, as well as instigate rampant unwanted media speculation that could overwhelm what they want to say. So to blithely speculate that Apple made this announcement purposely without any PR preparations, and are happy with the resulting tumult in the markets and the press, is simply off-base.
Apple carefully stage-manages its image. This was a giant cock-up for them. The COULD have announced that this was the last Macworld expo AFTER the expo, but they instead released info which effected maximum speculative damage to them. A poor showing if they'd planned it, even poorer that they hadn't expected it.
And as I sad (and you ignored) there's not much hope that Sniizer Schiller will 'knock it out of the park' with new products ... products that might well do more poorly than otherwise in this recessionary market ... which will AGAIN result in reports that Jobs's reduced hand on the tiller shows that Apple can't compete as well. In other words, what you think is a home run is instead setting up to be a story about a possible decline of Apple.
This was a royal screwup on Apple's part, sorry.