10 reasons why Apple pulled out of Macworld Expo....

In no particular order...

It costs Apple too much...
Quite probably. For little actual return, the investment required for Macworld must be significant with the huge booths and staffing. But realistically, the booths, whilst impressive in size, really don't deliver much information and you can just as easily nip down to your local Apple store these days and get more information. Although it probably costs them a significant amount of money each year, cost should not really be an issue for Apple, with having $25 billion in cash reserves. So yes, fiscally prudent in these "Credit Crunch" times but cost is not really a barrier to Apple and I would doubt this is one of the primary reasons but a real easy one to fall back on.

Steve is sick...
Here we go again! Yes, I suppose it's possible but I really don't think it's the reason for pulling out of Macworld or handing the Keynote baton to Phil Schiller. It's also very irresponsible for people to speculate over Steves health without confirmation or any actual hard evidence, but seems to have become a bit of a mantra in the Apple press.

Steve hates Macworld...
Actually, the grapevine says he does. Perhaps the incident with Violet Blue last year pushed him over the edge!

Having to have products ready is too restrictive...
Apple have made a rod for their own back by having this extremely theatrical product "announcementfest" every year in January. This forces them into what must be an extremely difficult and stressful product development cycle for which the end goal must be to have some major secret product announcements ready for each January, preferably with these wonder products available to ship, worldwide, on the same day.

Who decided that Apple needed to have this big product launch every January?

Well probably Apple themselves!

Presumably, at a time when they needed a launchpad to re-establish themselves on the world stage, but you know what, they no longer need to do that! Any product announcement at any time of the year will have major press coverage, Macworld is no longer needed to gain attention on the world stage.

Nothing ready this year...
There will be announcements this year, perhaps not "iPhone" level announcements but Apple will have a few suprises up their sleeves. Thye will probably start the hype machine for Snow Leopard with demos of some of the extra features that they have said don't exist. It may well be a more software oriented keynote this year. I doubt very much that with the level of planning that goes on within Apple that they've got within three weeks of the keynote and suddenly realised that they've nothing to show! This has been planned for months, possibly seeded as an idea as long ago as the last iPhone keynote.

Apple need to break the "Cult of Apple"...
I did mention this in my last blog post, but I do think Apple have decided to try and distance themselves from the perception of the "Cult of Mac". They need to position themselves as a credible consumer electronics company and move away from the perception that some (most?) people have outside of the Apple community, that of some wacky, cultish organisation with fanatical followers.

As much as I hate to say it, Macworld fuels that perception, and the Keynote with Steve Jobs is probably the biggest culprit.

I'm positive that the recent Simpsons "Mapple" spoof brought this home in a big way.

Macworld is affecting Holiday sales too much...
Who would buy a Mac leading up to Macworld? OK, so this year wasn't too bad as they released a refreshed range of laptops just before the holiday season so they were safe, but iMacs, Mac Minis, Mac Pros? No, I would imaging that the sales of Mac desktops across the range are severely depressed for the couple of months leading up to Macworld. Apple need to break this behaviour to boost holiday sales.

Apple need to prepare for Steves successor...
Absolutely!

They have to break away from the perception that Steve Jobs is Apple. Whilst he is still a major factor in their success, part of his brilliance is assembling a crack team around him and turning Apple into one of the most effective organisations in the world. How they managed to conceive, design and execute on the iPhone in such secrecy is an absolute marvel. It wasn't Steve who did this, it was Apple. So yes, they must start to prepare for Steves replacement and the removal of Steve from the keynote is just a step down that path.

Will Phil Schiller be his successor?

I doubt it, we'll most likely see several more high ranking Apple lieutenants take the stage throughout the year.

Steve hates Apple fans...
Don't take it personally guys!

This is a pure business decision at the highest level.

Apple has only a minor presence at Macworld...
True!

Aside from the keynote (which is a highlight, there's no denying that) the Apple booths and exhibits are not really a big draw. I'm not travelling 5,000 miles to go an see an iMac running iLife, I can nip into my home town center to see that. I have tons of web resources I can draw on, loads of news sites, more RSS feeds than I can process and so much information at my fingertips that I really don't need to chat with some college kid wearing an Apple Tshirt who has had a 30 minute briefing on the one product he's standing next to (no offence Apple demo people at Macworld!).

No, I'm there to see the thriving third party software and hardware vendors and their exhibits, I'm there to meet with developers to see their latest products and discuss their plans for future directions, I'm there to see cool stuff, I'm there to listen to great speakers and learn new stuff, I'm there to network with all my Mac friends and yes, even to go to a few parties!

Summary
I'm sure there are lots of other reasons why Apple decided to drop out of Macworld Expo next year and replace Steve Jobs as the keynote speaker, but we'll never know the true reasons.

What's the biggest impact? For me it's the removal of Steve Jobs as the keynote speaker. But there will still be a keynote, and we'll learn of more cool Apple stuff.

Many people are saying it's the death of Macworld Expo and giving the example of the demise of macworld Boston and other tradeshows. I think it's fair to say that in the current economic climate, tradeshows are going to have a tough time across the board and there will be casualties.

But Macworld is not dead, it may have been wounded but hopefully not fatally.

After all, it's not Apples Macworld, it's our Macworld and provided with don't all start wailing and moaning about the fact Apple is no longer there, you'll probably not even notice it.

Comments

[J Persing]

Good analysis! Too bad the stock market won't be reading this.

The most important:

1) Need to prepare for Steve Jobs successor. It would take a pretty good showman to replace Steve at the Keynote, but I have a feeling that the showman would be totally incapable of actually running Apple.

2)Breaking the Cult of Apple. Let's face it guys, we may have helped save Apple, but sometimes we do present an iffy image for a mainstream company.

3) Affecting holiday sales. Absolutely true. Who of us hasn't postponed a purchase to wait until the Macworld releases? Apple has been working toward a year round product release cycle. This is the final piece of that plan.

I do hope IDG finds a formula to maintain some type of event that has staying power. The personal relationships that have been founded at Macworld over the years are without a doubt the only thing that truly cannot be replaced in any other format.

[Larry "Sundog" Pollock]

Very good points Don. Apple does need to break the "cult of Mac" and build toward a successor.

This drive to introduce new or major upgrades every year is not realistic at all. It creates an emotional roller coaster for the stock and the fan base. Let's face it, Steve will not always be here, nor will any of us. Live keeps moving on.

I am 110% with Persing on his last paragraph, the intangible part is the social meetup of the community. This is a huge part. I too hope there will be an opportunity for the community to get together in person.

[Viswakarma]

Perhaps the 11th reason is Steve Jobs is preparing for the 25th Anniversary of the Macintosh Computer! Also, Apple might want to have smaller, but focused, events on a continual basis throughout the year rather than one big blow out session at MacWorld.